Richard Engel Offers 10 Predictions for 2016

ISTANBUL — It's been a rough year.

ISIS erupted across the world, making even al Qaeda look tame. Syria got so bad that millions decided to leave and walk to Europe. Libya collapsed. Thewar in Afghanistan got longer. Terrorists rampaged in Paris, twice.

There were bright moments too, but they were harder to pick out amid the darkness. The United States and Cuba agreed to let bygones be. TheEuropean Union held together despite deadbeat Greece, which as S.J. Perelman wrote, invented democracy but never got paid for it. In Paris, much of the world agreed to get greener and cleaner, but will they stick to it?

So what's next?

Here are a few guesses about what may be in store for international news in 2016. It's not all bad, but much of it is, particularly in the Middle East, which seems unable to pull itself out of its swamp of religious and ethnic divisions.

1. Rise of the far right in Europe

In 2015 the migrants and refugees flooded into Europe and are still traveling there. It was a shock. Germany opened its doors. But Europe's doors are closing. In 2016 this profound change will to settle in. There may be anger and resistance to the demographic changes and more xenophobia, which of course helps ISIS; and it may not be just happening in Europe.